Cross-Border Trucking Seeing Impact of Tariffs

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade deal struck in 2018 and up for renewal this month, is in a precarious position. Instead of having all three parties sit down to hammer out an agreement, President Trump has opted to deal individually with the two North American neighbors. 

The result has been prickly relations with both countries, especially Canada, where a full-blown trade war has broken out, although talks continue. Mexico, more dependent on U.S. trade, has taken a more cooperative approach, while Canada is looking to strengthen ties with the EU.

Here’s a look at issues impacting cross-border trade among the three continental partners.

Tariffs Impacting Balance of Cross-Border Freight

How does this math work? The value of trucked cross-border freight was up 24% in July, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, while the total weight of cross-border freight declined 1%. 

According to Land Line Media, that’s because Mexico imported a lot of high-value computer equipment that didn’t add trucks or tonnage, while there was a rush north to the Canadian border ahead of Canada’s retaliatory 50% tariffs imposed on September 8. That northbound surge caused spot rates to spike.

“It’s really starting to impact the balance of trade in terms of northbound and southbound,” Craig Watson, VP and managing partner of Uber Freight Canada, told Land Line. “If carriers are losing volume from their shippers, now they’re starting to scramble to say, ‘OK, how do I pick up business to go reposition northbound loads?’”

Watson said fast-moving consumer goods and product-replenishment shipments led the product categories driving the northward rush. 

U.S.-Canada Trade War Heats Up

The Trump and Carney administrations are going toe-to-toe in a trade war that has roiled the waters of a longstanding commercial partnership with our northern neighbor. The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on 5% of Canadian goods August 22, and a ban on imports of some dairy products, motorcycles, and alcohol as of September 29, claiming unfair treatment. Canada came back with its own 50% tariff affecting $20 billion in U.S. imports. 

According to Axios, a senior Trump administration official downplayed the impact of the tariff on Canadian goods, saying Canada has little market share in the targeted goods, while U.S. consumers can turn to domestic sellers and companies can rely on other foreign suppliers. On the Canada side, Carney is exploring deeper trade relations with the European Union, even as an “associate member,” as a hedge against losses in U.S. trade.

U.S., Mexico Push for Bilateral Trade Deal

With Canada trade talks on the rocks, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick held a virtual meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on September 9. While Sheinbaum pushed for preservation of the USMCA, the U.S. and Mexico are working on a bilateral trade deal in the meantime. 

Sheinbaum also is looking for the U.S. to reduce tariffs on steel, aluminum, and the automotive industry, which she called unfair and harmful to the Mexican economy. Mexico, hugely dependent on the U.S., which accounts for 80% of its exports, is taking a conciliatory approach in contrast to Canada.

Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, who took part in the virtual meeting, plans to travel to Washington for more trade talks with U.S. representatives, including Lutnick.

Record U.S.-Mexico Trade in July, But Cheese Names Are An Issue

According to U.S. Census Bureau data analyzed by WorldCity, U.S.-Mexico trade reached a record $94.8 billion in July, up 27.5% from 2025. U.S. exports to Mexico increased 18.1% year over year to $34.24 billion, while imports from Mexico climbed 33.5% to $60.55 billion. Mexico accounted for nearly 18% of total U.S. international trade during the month, remaining the country’s largest trading partner ahead of Canada and China. 

Laredo, Texas, remained the leading U.S. trade gateway, handling $36.95 billion in two-way commerce. About $35.9 billion of Laredo’s July trade involved Mexico, a 21.9% year-over-year increase. Motor vehicle parts were the gateway’s leading export commodity at $1.31 billion, while diesel engine exports rose nearly 85% to $433.8 million. Through July, two-way U.S.-Mexico trade totaled $588.52 billion, up 16.1% from the same period in 2025.

Meanwhile, a trade agreement between Mexico and the EU is ruffling the feathers of U.S. dairy producers. The deal restricts U.S. sellers from selling cheeses using common names like Parmesan and feta in Mexico, because the Europeans claim those names are reserved for products created in Italy and Greece, respectively.

TCG Helps Shippers Navigate Cross-Border Trade

Tariff changes are already affecting the balance and direction of North American freight, even as U.S.-Mexico trade reaches record levels. For shippers, shifting trade policies can change demand on individual lanes and create new capacity challenges. 

TCG gives shippers access to dedicated trucking, brokerage, intermodal, and transportation management capabilities that can support shifting cross-border requirements. TCG’s combination of transportation services gives shippers options for adjusting capacity as freight patterns change across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. As trade negotiations continue, TCG can provide flexible transportation capacity to help shippers manage changing cross-border requirements and maintain reliable freight capacity. To learn more, contact TCG today.