Freight Market on the Upswing: CSCMP Report

Hope springs eternal, as they say. And with a rising PMI from the Institute for Supply Management, plus the Cass Freight Index pointing toward back-half gains, it appears that hope of a freight recovery is based on more than wishful thinking. The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) is also in the glass-half-full camp with its latest report.

Here is a roundup of industry news, coupled with our take on what it means.

‘The Downcycle Has Come to an End’

While saying market disruption is no longer a phase but a permanent fixture, CSCMP in its annual State of Logistics Report found the freight market recovery is real after an extended recession.

“We can say with a high degree of confidence that the downcycle has come to an end and we are clearly on the path to recovery,” said Andres Mendoza Pena, a co-author of the study and partner at consulting firm Kearney, during a press conference, according to Transport Topics.

Kearney found in the report that truckload is no longer a homogeneous national market but shows a strong degree of variability in capacity and rates by region and by lane.

Our take: Disruption has stopped being a phase. Last year’s CSCMP report said the industry was “navigating through the fog,” while this year’s report says the fog is permanent. Tariffs, chokepoints, fragmentation, and AI aren’t temporary detours anymore. They’re the operating environment, and the winners are the ones redesigning around that reality instead of waiting for it to pass.

Truck Tonnage Down in May: ATA

According to the latest For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index from the American Trucking Associations, truck tonnage was up 2% for the first five months of 2026, an improvement from a year ago, when it was flat compared to 2024. This is despite a 2.9% drop in April and May combined, the ATA reported.

“Despite the recent decreases, the (truck tonnage) index increased from year-earlier levels for the sixth straight month, which is pretty good considering the bulk of freight drivers, like manufacturing and construction, remain lackluster,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello.

Our take: The headline is that freight volumes remain positive year over year despite weakness in manufacturing and construction. That suggests the freight recovery is being supported by a broader mix of demand. The recent pullback underscores how uneven this market remains. Rather than a broad-based expansion, trucking continues to recover lane by lane and sector by sector, making network flexibility and disciplined capacity management critical.

Driver Shortage May Be Growth Headwind

Whatever you might think about the veracity of the truck driver shortage, getting and keeping quality drivers is proving to be an issue while the non-domiciled, non-English-speaking CDL crackdown continues. This is impacting capacity and could put a crimp in the nascent freight recovery, The Trucker reports.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has estimated that enforcement actions against non-domiciled, non-English-speaking CDL holders could result in the loss of up to 194,000 truck drivers. The actual number of exits could be higher as some opt not to pursue a license and not risk forfeiture and possible deportation. But to date, only 28,000 CDL holders have been removed, Duffy said.

“We have experienced some issues trying to find drivers recently,” David Wheeler, director of safety at Ohio-based MCK Trucking Inc., told The Trucker. “I’m not going to say that it’s 100% attributed to the non-domicile rules, because we didn’t hire drivers with the non-domicile CDLs to start with, but we have seen a decrease in our orientation size in the last three to six months. I would say there’s just less drivers to go around now.”

Our take: The trucker shortage argument will go on endlessly between the ATA and large carriers (it’s for real) and the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA), analysts, and researchers (it’s baloney). Regardless, the reality on the ground for operators like MCK Trucking and others is that their pipeline of road warriors has become challenged.

FedEx Freight Looking for LTL Growth in Specialized Markets

Newly minted standalone FedEx Freight is looking to diversify into higher-margin sectors for growth in its LTL business, including healthcare, data centers, and grocery, its CEO John Smith told analysts on a fourth-quarter earnings call.

Smith said improvement in manufacturing activity, tighter truckload capacity and the end of a period of pricing erosion post-COVID as evidence of stronger LTL fundamentals.

Addressing the issue of capacity and driver availability, Smith said FedEx Freight has a program in which it trains loading dock workers to get their CDLs so it has new drivers in reserve to meet whatever demand spikes occur. “We feel really prepared for when this thing comes around and the market changes,” he said.

Our take: The No. 1 LTL provider is hitting the ground running as a standalone entity, with capacity in reserve, and in “hunting mode” for higher margin freight with a geared-up sales team. And as have others, FedEx Freight is seeing a bump in LTL volume as truckload capacity tightens because federal CDL enforcement actions are hitting that mode harder.

Brokers See Safer Highways in Wake of Montgomery Ruling

Top freight brokers are saying that while the Supreme Court decision in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport LLC is increasing their liability, it’s a net positive for the industry and the public in terms of incentivizing greater roadway safety.

The high court in May voted 9-0 that federal law does not shield freight brokers from state lawsuits for negligently hiring unsafe motor carriers. The landmark decision allows victims of trucking accidents to hold brokers accountable for their hiring and vetting practices.

The case arose out of a 2017 accident in Illinois in which a parked tractor-trailer was struck by a truck operated by Caribe, hauling a load brokered by C.H. Robinson. The driver of the first truck, Shawn Montgomery, suffered catastrophic injuries. Caribe had a conditional safety rating and documented deficiencies. Montgomery sued C.H. Robinson, arguing the broker negligently hired Caribe despite the red flags.

Brokers told Transport Topics that the ruling hasn’t impacted their safety or vetting processes, but added it will force more brokers on the margins to look beyond basic regulatory compliance to more rigorous carrier screening.

In a related story, the ruling has led to another lawsuit against C.H. Robinson, filed shortly after the Montgomery decision. Last August, an illegal alien driving a semi in Florida reportedly made an illegal U-turn on a highway, hitting and killing three people in a minivan. The case became a political flashpoint over immigration.

C.H. Robinson told FreightWaves it didn’t broker the load hauled by White Hawk, and hadn’t used the carrier since 2024. A Florida circuit court agreed, dismissing C.H. Robinson as a defendant in late June.

Our take: Whether you agreed with the Supreme Court’s Montgomery decision or not, the fact remains that it is forcing brokers to redouble their efforts at vetting carriers. In some cases, FMCSA data showing a poor safety record has been willfully ignored when onboarding new trucking partners. Anything that tightens up the carrier review process is a good thing, even if brokers feel the sting of higher liability premiums.

An Experienced Partner Is More Important Than Ever

With both truckload and LTL feeling the pricing power — even as demand is somewhat soft, due to capacity constraints — it’s music to the ears of carriers but a note of caution for shippers. However, positive economic indicators from PMI, both in terms of manufacturing and inventories, should place many in a good position to absorb the increased cost.

As truckload capacity tightens and spot rates rise along with LTL pricing, shippers need to know they can lock in their capacity in step with projections. That’s when an experienced transportation partner with a broad portfolio of services becomes invaluable.

TCG, the operating brand of The Cox Group, is that experienced partner. Whether your business calls for dedicated trucking, freight brokerage, intermodal, regional, long haul, or cross-border into Canada and Mexico, or a combination of services, TCG has you covered. With 40 years in business and a team of seasoned logistics operators, TCG gives you one number to call, one master agreement, and a high degree of accessibility and accountability. Learn more at www.TCGenterprise.com.