Regulatory Environment Hitting Reliability of Capacity
Trucking capacity is tightening even as freight demand remains uneven. Regulatory enforcement, driver shortages, rising operating costs, and higher fuel prices are putting pressure on carriers, creating a market in which reliable capacity matters more for shippers. Here is the latest industry news that highlights these issues.
Tighter Rules Raise Costs, Put More Weight on Carrier Reliability
In its inaugural Mile Marker report, freight payment platform Triumph said tighter regulations governing carriers and drivers are making it harder for the trucking market to rebuild capacity. The changes include stronger enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements for CDL holders and tighter ELD compliance.
Higher compliance requirements also raise the barriers to entry for new carriers. Adding Class 8 equipment and recruiting drivers is no longer enough to quickly bring new capacity into the market. New entrants must also meet a broader set of regulatory and qualification requirements before they can begin operating.
“Unlike prior recoveries, which found capacity equilibrium within one to two years, 2027 is more likely to be a continuation of the capacity reset, with 2028 likely marking the first year in which the early effects of this reframing become visible,” Triumph said in the report.
Triumph expects shippers to place greater emphasis on what it calls “defensible capacity,” meaning a carrier’s ability to consistently deliver on its capacity commitments. In a tighter regulatory environment, Triumph identifies several indicators of carrier reliability, including acceptable FMCSA safety ratings and operating authority, a successful operating history, and documented internal carrier-qualification policies.
Our take: As regulations tighten, shippers have more reason to evaluate capacity based on reliability, not availability alone. Operating history, safety records, qualification practices, and consistent service performance all become more important when capacity is harder to replace. A low rate has limited value if the carrier cannot reliably meet its commitments.
Trucking Execs Concerned About Drivers, Capacity for Fall Peak
Trucking executives expect tighter than normal capacity during the late fall peak, driven largely by a shrinking pool of qualified drivers. Averitt Express says finding certified drivers has again become a significant operational challenge, while Schneider characterizes the truckload market as “driver-constrained,” with long-haul driver levels near decade lows. Schneider also expects additional noncompliant capacity to exit the market through 2027.
The American Trucking Associations’ July For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 1% after a 1.5% increase in June, reflecting uneven freight activity. ATA economist Bob Costello described tonnage as “choppy,” noting that the broader trucking recovery is being driven primarily by excess capacity leaving the market rather than strong demand. Data center construction remains an exception.
LTL carriers are seeing mixed conditions as well. Old Dominion reported higher revenue per day despite lower shipment volumes, while ABF cited favorable weight-per-shipment trends alongside subdued industrial demand. Schulz notes that driver shortages are also increasing recruiting, retention, and compensation costs for carriers.
Our take: For shippers, tighter driver capacity makes reliable carrier relationships increasingly important. As qualified drivers become harder to secure and excess capacity leaves the market, service can become less predictable during peak periods. Planning ahead and working with carriers that can consistently support committed lanes gives shippers more control when capacity tightens.
Headwinds Battling Against Freight Recovery: OOIDA
The September OOIDA Foundation Market Update describes a freight market that is strengthening in some areas but facing significant cost and demand pressures. Freight demand is firming, with the dry van composite index up 2% year over year and manufacturing remaining in expansion territory. At the same time, the van market softened in August, with the demand index falling 6.7% month over month and dry van spot rates declining 23 cents per mile to $2.64.
For shippers, rising transportation costs remain a key concern. The long-haul truckload producer price index increased 3.7 points in August and was 23.9% above the prior year. Trucking operating costs also jumped 10.1 points, driven largely by a 17.8% increase in fuel costs, putting additional pressure on carrier pricing. Meanwhile, OOIDA points to weakening manufacturing momentum, higher interest rates and inflation as potential headwinds for freight demand.
Our take: Shippers should expect a market with more variability between lanes and equipment types. Cost pressure and uneven demand make flexible planning and dependable carrier capacity increasingly important.
Operating Costs, Especially Fuel, Could Push Carriers Out in Q4
Rising diesel prices could push additional trucking capacity out of the market in Q4, even as freight demand remains relatively soft, FreightWaves reported. Spot linehaul rates are more than 40% above year-ago levels, but carrier operating margins remain well below their previous-cycle highs. RXO’s Corey Klujsza said higher fuel costs are consuming much of the improvement in transportation pricing, putting pressure on carriers that are already operating with thin margins.
The demand picture is mixed. Klujsza said recent goods spending growth is overstating underlying freight demand because higher energy costs are more of a driver than consumer purchases of goods, which fuels trucking. Q4 peak season indicators suggest limited volume growth, similar to 2025. However, in August, the Cass Freight Shipment Index posted its first year-over-year increase since January 2023, potentially signaling more freight moving into the for-hire market. Cass’ Linehaul Index was up 11.3%, the largest increase since June 2022.
Our take: Shippers should account for fuel-driven cost pressure when planning Q4 transportation. Even moderate demand growth could create tighter capacity if operating costs force additional carriers out of the market.
Short-Haul Truckload Freight Outpacing Long-Haul
August freight data presents a mixed picture for shippers, according to The Trucker. The ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.5% from July and 1.6% year over year, suggesting that tighter capacity, rather than stronger demand, is driving higher trucking rates. The Cass Freight Index showed stronger activity, with shipments up 5.6% from July and 2.1% year over year, partly because it covers multiple transportation modes, not just trucking.
Meanwhile, spot rates may be approaching a peak as contract rates catch up. DAT reported August dry van spot rates at $2.89 per mile versus $3.11 for contract rates, with similar gaps for reefer and flatbed freight. The freight analytics provider showed spot load posts down 9.3% in August, still 35.3% ahead of 2025, but trending south. In September, DAT’s dry van rates inched up to an average of $3 per mile. C.H. Robinson expects capacity constraints to continue pushing trucking costs higher through 2027. Rising diesel prices add further pressure.
Our take: Shippers should prepare for higher transportation costs even without major freight growth. Longer-term capacity planning and clear fuel surcharge structures can reduce exposure to further market tightening.
It’s Shaping Up to Be An Interesting Peak in Freight
Tighter capacity despite lower demand and rate pressure, with fuel costs a main driver, continues to frame the story in the carrier market as we head into peak season. For carriers, the spot market is losing some of its pricing advantage as contract rates reset upward. That makes the current environment different from the freight recession, when shippers could often lean heavily on cheaper spot capacity.
At a time when the analysts at Triumph are placing a premium on “defensible capacity,” shippers need a transportation partner they can count on to deliver consistency across service types. TCG, in the logistics and transportation business since 1986, offers a broad network of reliable asset-based and dedicated services. We operate OTR, regional, dedicated, dry van, and cross-border lanes across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
Adding in our full-service warehousing, TCG can cover your entire lane from origin to DC to final destination in one integrated solution. Contact TCG today to learn more.
