Trucking demand still isn’t showing up, even though the end of the freight recession has been declared multiple times in the past year. From the perspective of carriers, rate growth continues to be supported by capacity exiting the market. Smaller carriers, meanwhile, face a challenging environment post-Montgomery v. Caribe Transport, as many could face extinction while now-liable brokers tighten up their vetting requirements.

Tender Rejection Stall Points to Capacity Tightening

FreightWaves SONAR data shows the national Tender Rejection Index climbed above 14% in early September for the first time since early August, with Labor Day demand tightening capacity faster than in the previous three years. 

The increase underscores the fragility of the current, supply-led market: capacity has stopped contracting rapidly but has not meaningfully expanded, leaving even modest demand increases capable of causing significant disruption. Tender volumes dipped ahead of the holiday as shippers pulled freight forward, but a sharp rebound is expected after Labor Day. 

Spot rates are showing mixed signals, with elevated but declining flatbed rates, stable reefer rates supported by seasonal demand, and unusually volatile van rates. Overall, FreightWaves expects tight capacity to continue amplifying market volatility, with van spot-rate swings likely to remain a defining feature through the end of 2026. 

Our take: A tightening freight market doesn’t require a major demand surge to create disruption. With capacity still constrained, even seasonal increases can quickly push rejection rates and spot prices higher. Shippers should plan for greater volatility and prioritize flexible capacity, strong carrier relationships, and routing options as conditions tighten. 

Brokers Report Rate Gains

More than 80% of brokers reported year-over-year increases in spot rates during the first half of 2026, with over a third of those seeing gains reporting increases of 25% or more. This is according to the H1 Freight Broker and Q2 Carrier surveys from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence, as reported by DC Velocity.

Contract rates also moved higher, with 55% of brokers reporting increases, the companies found, while 63% saw revenue rise. Margins were more mixed in the near term: 43% said margins were lower than in the second half of 2025. Looking ahead, however, brokers remain optimistic. Nearly two-thirds said they expect margins to improve over the next six months, while 74% anticipate stronger demand.

Capacity is tightening alongside rates. The survey found nearly three-quarters of brokers expect capacity to become tighter over the next three to six months, compared with just 14% who expect it to loosen. And 86% say finding capacity is already more difficult than it was previously. That tightening environment puts a premium on controlled capacity. Almost 70% of brokers said companies with their own trailer fleets have an advantage over those without them. 

Our take: As capacity becomes harder to secure, asset ownership can become a meaningful competitive differentiator. This is not because brokers without assets lack options, but because owned equipment provides another source of capacity when the broader market gets tighter. 

Market Challenged for Smaller Carriers Post-Montgomery Decision

Two transportation attorneys see growing pressure on small trucking companies following the Supreme Court’s unanimous Montgomery v. Caribe Transport decision, according to FreightWaves’ “The Long Haul” podcast. Brian Nelson of Taylor Nelson Slattery Bernard explained that the ruling allows negligent-selection lawsuits against brokers to proceed deeper into litigation, increasing legal and insurance costs. It also has prompted brokers to formalize carrier-selection standards, creating additional qualification hurdles for small fleets.

Greg Feary of Scopelitis said he is already seeing larger carriers absorb smaller operations as brokers become more selective. He expects four- and five-truck fleets increasingly may operate under larger carriers’ authority to maintain access to freight. The trend is reflected in declining numbers of carriers with one to six power units.

Both attorneys said small carriers can remain competitive by prioritizing safety, maintaining meticulous compliance records, understanding broker qualification requirements, and building direct relationships with local brokers. Ultimately, safety and professionalism may be the small carrier’s strongest defenses.

Our take: Montgomery v. Caribe is a reminder that carrier selection is no longer just a procurement decision but a safety and liability issue. For smaller motor carriers, that means greater pressure to maintain strong safety records and documentation, and fewer opportunities for carriers with compliance issues.

Truck Tonnage Dips 1% in July: ATA

The American Trucking Associations’ For Hire Truck Tonnage Index was down 1% in July, after going up 1.5% in June, ATA reported, with volume generated by data center construction a lone bright spot. The index is heavily weighted toward contract freight versus the spot market.

ATA’s index, which uses 2015 as a baseline, was down 0.5% from July 2025; it had been up 1.2% in June. Compared with the same period in 2025, year-to-date tonnage was up 1.4% as of August 18, helped by strong increases in trucked freight from February through April.

“Tonnage levels have been choppy recently, and this trend was reflected in July’s decline,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Aside from a couple pockets of strength, including the boom in data center construction for AI, freight has been lackluster. It is also true that the industry is seeing a recovery, but that is nearly all due to excess capacity leaving the market.”

Our take: July’s decline in truck tonnage reinforces how uneven the freight recovery remains. Volumes are still poor, but shrinking capacity is improving market conditions for carriers even without strong demand growth. For shippers, this means a modest pickup in freight could have an outsized impact on capacity and rates as the market continues to rebalance. 

In a Tight Market, Reliable Capacity Is Invaluable

Rising tender rejections, higher spot and contract rates, and growing difficulty securing trucks all point to a market with less room for error. At the same time, the pressure on smaller carriers and the increasing importance of safety and compliance could accelerate industry consolidation. Data center construction provides an important pocket of freight growth, but it has yet to translate into a broad-based recovery in trucking demand. For shippers, capacity may become more expensive and less predictable before demand fully recovers.

For shippers navigating this transition, access to multiple sources of capacity will matter more than finding the lowest rate. TCG’s combination of asset-based trucking, brokerage, and intermodal options provides more flexibility when one part of the market tightens. In this environment, a transportation partner like TCG — with established networks and dependable operating capacity — can help shippers absorb volatility instead of reacting to it. To learn more, contact TCG today.