Freight rates across truckload and LTL are continuing to rise along with fuel prices and a capacity squeeze, a year after a prolonged period of overcapacity began to unwind. Spot rates for truckload, meanwhile, hit a plateau in mid October but are expected to hold firm, while federal enforcement continues to pull drivers off the road and put “CDL mills” out of business.

Freight Rates Overall on the Upswing

High fuel prices, constrained capacity, and peak fees are expected to lead to a very expensive Q4 for freight, according to the Q3 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, which tracks freight rates across truckload, less than truckload, and parcel.

According to the index, Q4 will see the highest truckload rates since Q1 2022, while LTL rates were 82.5% above the January 2018 baseline, the first time they exceeded 80%.

GDP growth that has been concentrated in services and investments versus physical goods has been dragging down freight volumes. Meanwhile, federal government enforcement has taken thousands of CDL drivers and more than 100 training locations out of service in 2026, creating a supply squeeze. Together these factors continue to drive up rates. 

In truckload, for instance, the TD Cowen/AFS index was below the 2018 baseline a year ago due to overcapacity. Since then, a shedding of capacity plus low demand and rising fuel costs have pushed it up steadily, from 7.6% above baseline in Q4 2025 to 19.7% over in Q3 of this year.

Declining shipment weights in LTL led to lower cost-per-shipment growth in Q3, but midyear GRIs and elevated fuel surcharges acted as a counterweight, supporting higher rates. Pricing discipline on the part of carriers and sustained fuel costs are expected to keep pricing momentum pacing upward. 

Our take: With the “great freight recession” a thing of the past, carriers are taking advantage of a constrained capacity market to maintain pricing discipline (read: passing along fuel increases) and push rates higher. In the current environment, they can afford to be choosy about the loads they accept; the SONAR tender rejection rate has more than doubled from a year ago (13.9% versus 6%).

Spot Rates Flattening But Not Expected to Fall

Spot rates for truckload freight have peaked as of mid-October but aren’t expected to fall as usual from capacity flowing into the contract market, according to analysis from FTR Transportation Intelligence.

For the week ending October 9, dry van spot rates were up 45.2% from the same period in 2025, at $2.86 per mile, after peaking at 53% higher in the previous week.

As dry van spot rates have risen alongside diesel prices, especially after Labor Day, Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for FTR, suggested fuel cost recovery on the part of carriers was a factor in the increase. 

Our take: Carriers need to see more than rising spot rates to add contract capacity. They need some assurance there will be sufficient freight committed to cover their costs during the contract period, including when demand softens. A temporary increase in spot rates isn’t going to get them there.   

Russian Fuel Deal Wouldn’t Help With Soaring Diesel Prices, Experts Say

President Trump’s proposed deal with Russia to free up 300,000 tons of its diesel fuel would not make an appreciable dent in the high price of diesel at the pump, according to experts.

Trump announced the deal on Oct. 9 after a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It hinges on Trump’s authority to order an exemption to a 2014 ban on importing Russian goods, enacted in the wake of its 2014 invasion of the Crimea. A 2022 act of Congress specifically banned the importation of Russian oil and gas. A bipartisan group of six senators has urged Trump to spike the deal. 

Various experts have panned the agreement, seeing it as political pandering before the midterms that won’t move the needle on diesel prices anyway. “In my opinion, there’s no impact, given it’s such a tiny amount in the big scheme of things,” Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, told USA Today.

According to Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, Russia is offering 13.5 million barrels of diesel to the U.S. in the coming months, compared to monthly domestic consumption of 111 million barrels of distillate fuel, mostly diesel. “As a percentage, it represents only a small fraction and is unlikely to make a huge difference,” Kumar said.

Our take: Any drop in historically high diesel prices would be a welcome relief to truckers, farmers, airlines, and other heavy users of the fuel, providing an economic boost into the bargain. But this deal, by no means a sure thing, isn’t the vehicle to get us there. 

FMCSA CDL Crackdown Continues to Impact Capacity

Federal regulators are expanding their crackdown on fraudulent CDL training providers, a move that could further tighten trucking capacity even as freight markets remain constrained. 

The FMCSA is seeking emergency action against so-called “chameleon” CDL schools, training providers that allegedly reopen under new names after enforcement actions, while also removing noncompliant schools from the federal Training Provider Registry. Investigators have cited unlicensed instructors, inadequate training facilities and other violations that undermine entry-level driver qualification standards.

At the same time, stricter enforcement of English language proficiency (ELP) requirements continues to sideline drivers who cannot meet federal standards for reading road signs and communicating with law enforcement. The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) has backed an FMCSA proposal to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s proposal to immediately place truck drivers who aren’t proficient in English out of service. The association called ELP a “life-and-death safety standard” rather than a new regulation.

Together, tougher oversight of CDL schools and driver qualification standards is raising barriers to entry, reducing questionable capacity and reinforcing a freight market where additional truckload capacity is entering more slowly than in previous cycles.

Trusting Your Freight to a Reliable Partner

You wouldn’t expect to see a freight market in which tight capacity coupled with low demand pushes the rate curve not downward but upward, but that’s where we find ourselves in late 2026. The bruising effect of historically high diesel prices from an expanding Mideast war, with no relief in sight, is the primary culprit.

In times like these, shippers need a reliable transportation provider who can not only provide a range of service options but also craft a solution best suited to their budget.

With a 40-year legacy, TCG brings together asset-based trucking, brokerage, intermodal, and warehousing, giving you multiple ways to move freight without forcing every shipment into the same mold. We help you weigh service requirements, capacity, and cost, building a solution around the freight rather than the other way around. Contact TCG today to discuss how your transportation network can stay responsive no matter what the market does.